1. Macro level: The commercial automotive industry has grown by 15%, with new energy and intelligence becoming the driving force for development.
In 2023, the commercial automotive industry experienced a downturn in 2022 and faced opportunities for recovery growth. According to data from Shangpu Consulting Group, the total sales volume of the commercial vehicle market is expected to reach 3.96 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 20%, marking the highest growth rate in nearly a decade. This growth is mainly influenced by multiple factors such as the improvement of domestic and international economic situation, optimization of policy environment, and promotion of technological innovation.
(1) Firstly, the domestic economic situation is stable and improving, providing strong demand support for the commercial vehicle market. According to data from Shangpu Consulting Group, in the first half of 2023, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 8.1% year-on-year, higher than the level of 6.1% for the entire year of 2022. Among them, the tertiary industry grew by 9.5% and contributed 60.5% to GDP growth, becoming the main force driving economic growth. The transportation, warehousing, and postal industries saw a year-on-year growth of 10.8%, 1.3 percentage points higher than the average level of the tertiary industry. These data indicate that China’s economy has recovered from the impact of the epidemic and entered a stage of high-quality development. With the recovery and expansion of economic activities, the demand for commercial vehicles in logistics and passenger transportation has also increased.
(2) Secondly, the policy environment is conducive to the stable growth of the commercial vehicle market, especially in the fields of new energy and intelligence. 2023 marks the beginning of the 14th Five Year Plan and the beginning of a new journey towards building a socialist modernized country in all respects. In this context, the central and local governments have successively introduced a series of policies and measures to stabilize growth, promote consumption, ensure employment, and benefit people’s livelihoods, injecting vitality into the commercial vehicle market. For example, the Notice on Further Stabilizing and Expanding Automobile Consumption proposes multiple measures such as supporting the development of new energy vehicles, encouraging second-hand car transactions, and improving infrastructure construction; The Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Innovative Development of Intelligent Connected Vehicles propose multiple tasks such as accelerating technological innovation of intelligent connected vehicles, strengthening the construction of intelligent connected vehicle standard systems, and accelerating the industrial application of intelligent connected vehicles. These policies are not only conducive to the overall stability of the commercial vehicle market, but also conducive to breakthroughs and development in the fields of new energy and intelligence.
(3) Finally, technological innovation has brought new growth points to the commercial vehicle market, especially in the fields of new energy and intelligence. In 2023, the commercial automotive industry has made significant progress and breakthroughs in new energy and intelligence. According to data from Shangpu Consulting Group, in the first half of 2023, the new energy commercial vehicle market sold a total of 412000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 146.5%, accounting for 20.8% of the total commercial vehicle market and reaching a historic high. Among them, 42000 new energy heavy-duty trucks were sold, a year-on-year increase of 121.1%; The cumulative sales of new energy light trucks reached 346000 units, a year-on-year increase of 153.9%. The cumulative sales of new energy buses reached 24000 units, a year-on-year increase of 63.6%. These data indicate that new energy commercial vehicles have entered a period of comprehensive market-oriented expansion, ushering in a new stage of development and growth. In terms of intelligence, in the first half of 2023, a total of 78000 L1 level and above intelligent connected commercial vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of 78.6%, accounting for 3.9% of the total commercial vehicle market. Among them, L1 level intelligent connected commercial vehicles sold 74000 units, a year-on-year increase of 77.9%; L2 level intelligent connected commercial vehicles sold 3800 units, a year-on-year increase of 87.5%; L3 or above intelligent connected commercial vehicles have sold a total of 200 vehicles. These data indicate that intelligent connected commercial vehicles have basically reached the level of mass production and have been applied in some scenarios.
In summary, in the first half of 2023, the commercial automotive industry showed a recovery growth trend under the influence of multiple factors such as domestic and international economic situation, policy environment, and technological innovation. Especially in the fields of new energy and intelligence, it has become the main driving force and highlight of the development of the commercial vehicle industry.
2. At the segmented market level: Heavy trucks and light trucks lead the market growth, while the passenger car market gradually recovers.
In the first half of 2023, the performance of different segmented markets has their own characteristics. From the data, heavy-duty trucks and light trucks are leading the market growth, while the passenger car market is gradually recovering.
(1) Heavy duty trucks: Driven by demand for infrastructure investment, logistics and transportation, the heavy duty truck market has maintained a high level of operation. According to data from Shangpu Consulting Group, in the first half of 2023, the production and sales of heavy-duty trucks reached 834000 and 856000, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 23.5% and 24.7%, higher than the overall growth rate of commercial vehicles. Among them, the production and sales of tractor vehicles reached 488000 and 499000 units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 21.8% and 22.8%, accounting for 58.6% and 58.3% of the total number of heavy-duty trucks, and continuing to maintain a dominant position. The production and sales of dump trucks reached 245000 and 250000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 28% and 29%, accounting for 29.4% and 29.2% of the total amount of heavy trucks, showing a strong growth momentum. The production and sales of trucks reached 101000 and 107000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.4% and 15.7%, accounting for 12.1% and 12.5% of the total number of heavy trucks, maintaining stable growth. From the perspective of market structure, the heavy-duty truck market presents characteristics such as high-end, green, and intelligent. In terms of high-end transportation, with the increasing demand for specialization, personalization, and efficiency in logistics transportation, the requirements for product quality, performance, comfort, and other aspects of the heavy-duty truck market are also constantly increasing. High end brands and products are favored by more users. In the first half of 2023, the proportion of products priced above 300000 yuan in the heavy-duty truck market reached 32.6%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of greening, with the continuous strengthening of national environmental protection requirements, the demand for energy conservation, emission reduction, new energy, and other aspects in the heavy-duty truck market is also increasing, and new energy heavy-duty trucks have become a new highlight of the market. In the first half of 2023, new energy heavy-duty trucks sold a total of 42000 units, a year-on-year increase of 121.1%, accounting for 4.9% of the total number of heavy-duty trucks, a year-on-year increase of 2.1 percentage points. In terms of intelligence, with the continuous innovation and application of intelligent connected technology, the demand for safety, convenience, and efficiency in the heavy-duty truck market is also constantly increasing. Intelligent connected heavy-duty trucks have become a new trend in the market. In the first half of 2023, a total of 56000 L1 level and above intelligent connected heavy-duty trucks were sold, an increase of 82.1% year-on-year, accounting for 6.5% of the total number of heavy-duty trucks, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year.
(2) Light duty trucks: Driven by demand from e-commerce logistics, rural consumption, and other factors, the market for light duty trucks has maintained rapid growth. According to data from Shangpu Consulting Group, in the first half of 2023, the production and sales of light trucks reached 1.648 million and 1.669 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 28.6% and 29.8%, far higher than the overall growth rate of commercial vehicles. Among them, the production and sales of light trucks reached 387000 and 395000, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 23.8% and 24.9%, accounting for 23.5% and 23.7% of the total number of light and micro trucks; The production and sales of micro trucks reached 1.261 million and 1.274 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 30% and 31.2%, accounting for 76.5% and 76.3% of the total number of light and micro trucks. From the perspective of market structure, the light truck market presents characteristics such as diversification, differentiation, and new energy. In terms of diversification, with the emergence and development of various demands such as e-commerce logistics, rural consumption, and urban distribution, the demand for product types, functions, forms, and other aspects in the light truck market has become more diverse, and the light truck products are also more diverse and colorful. In the first half of 2023, in the light truck market, in addition to traditional types such as box cars, flatbeds, and dump trucks, there were also special types of products such as cold chain, express delivery, and medical products. These special types of products accounted for 8.7%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of differentiation, with the intensification of competition in the light truck market, light truck companies are also paying more attention to product differentiation and personalization to meet the needs and preferences of different users. In the first half of 2023, the proportion of products with significantly differentiated characteristics in the light truck market reached 12.4%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of new energy, with the continuous progress of new energy technology and the continuous reduction of costs, the demand for new energy products in the light truck market is also increasing, and new energy light trucks have become the new driving force of the market. In the first half of 2023, 346000 new energy light trucks were sold, an increase of 153.9% year-on-year, accounting for 20.7% of the total number of light and micro trucks, an increase of 9.8 percentage points year-on-year.
(3) Bus: Due to factors such as the gradual decline in the impact of the epidemic and the gradual recovery of tourism demand, the bus market is gradually recovering. According to data from Shangpu Consulting Group, in the first half of 2023, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 141000 and 145000 units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.1% and 2.8%, which is lower than the overall growth rate of commercial vehicles, but has rebounded compared to the full year of 2022. Among them, the production and sales of large passenger cars reached 28000 and 29000 units respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1% and 4.6%, accounting for 19.8% and 20% of the total number of passenger cars; The production and sales of medium-sized passenger cars reached 37000 and 38000 units respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% and 0.3%, accounting for 26.2% and 26.4% of the total passenger car volume; The production and sales of light buses reached 76000 and 78000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 7.4%, accounting for 53.9% and 53.6% of the total number of buses. From the perspective of market structure, the passenger car market presents characteristics such as high-end, new energy, and intelligence. In terms of high-end development, with the increasing requirements for the quality, performance, and comfort of passenger cars in areas such as tourism and public transportation, high-end brands and products have been favored by more users. In the first half of 2023, the proportion of products priced above 500000 yuan in the passenger car market reached 18.2%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of new energy utilization, with the support and encouragement of national policies on energy conservation, emission reduction, green travel, and other aspects, the demand for new energy products in the passenger car market is also constantly increasing, and new energy passenger cars have become a new highlight of the market. In the first half of 2023, new energy buses sold a total of 24000 units, an increase of 63.6% year-on-year, accounting for 16.5% of the total number of buses, an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of intelligence, with the continuous innovation and application of intelligent connected technology, the demand for safety, convenience, and efficiency in the passenger car market is also constantly increasing. Intelligent connected passenger cars have become a new trend in the market. In the first half of 2023, the sales of intelligent connected buses above L1 level reached 22000, a year-on-year increase of 72.7%, accounting for 15.1% of the total number of buses, an increase of 5.4 percentage points.
In summary, in the first half of 2023, the performance of different segmented markets has their own characteristics. Heavy trucks and light trucks are leading the market growth, while the passenger car market is gradually recovering. From the perspective of market structure, different segmented markets exhibit characteristics such as high-end, new energy, and intelligence.
3、Conclusion and suggestion: The commercial automotive industry is facing opportunities for restorative growth, but it also faces many challenges and needs to strengthen innovation and cooperation
In the first half of 2023, the commercial automotive industry experienced a downturn in 2022 and faced opportunities for recovery growth. From a macro perspective, the commercial vehicle industry has grown by 15%, with new energy and intelligence becoming the driving force for development; From the perspective of segmented markets, heavy-duty trucks and light trucks are leading the market growth, while the passenger car market is gradually recovering; From a corporate perspective, commercial automotive companies face fierce competition, with differentiation and innovation becoming their core competitiveness. These data and phenomena indicate that the commercial automotive industry has emerged from the shadow of the epidemic and entered a new stage of development.
However, the commercial automotive industry also faces many challenges and uncertainties. On the one hand, the domestic and international economic situation is still complex and ever-changing, there is still a long way to go for epidemic prevention and control, and trade frictions still occur from time to time. These factors may have adverse effects on the commercial vehicle market. On the other hand, there are also some problems and contradictions within the commercial automotive industry. For example, although the field of new energy and intelligence is developing rapidly, there are also problems such as technological bottlenecks, lack of standards, security risks, and insufficient infrastructure; Although the passenger car market is gradually recovering, it is also facing pressure such as structural adjustment, product upgrading, and consumption transformation; Although commercial automobile enterprises face fierce competition, they also face problems such as homogenization, low efficiency, and excess production capacity.
Therefore, in the current situation, the commercial automotive industry needs to strengthen innovation and cooperation to address challenges and uncertainties. Specifically, there are several suggestions:
(1) Strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality and performance. Technological innovation is the fundamental driving force and core competitiveness of the development of the commercial automotive industry. The commercial automotive industry should increase investment in technology research and development, break through key core technologies, and make more progress and breakthroughs in new energy, intelligence, lightweight, safety, and other aspects. At the same time, the commercial automotive industry should improve product quality and performance, provide more high-quality, efficient, and comfortable products and services while meeting user needs, and improve user satisfaction and loyalty.
(2) Strengthen standard construction, promote industrial standardization and coordinated development. Standard construction is the fundamental guarantee and leading role for the development of the commercial automotive industry. The commercial automotive industry should strengthen the construction of standard systems, formulate and improve technical standards, safety standards, environmental protection standards, quality standards, etc. that are in line with international standards, and provide unified standards and requirements for the research and development, production, sales, use, recycling, and other aspects of commercial automotive products. At the same time, the commercial automotive industry should strengthen the implementation and supervision of standards, promote industry standardization and coordinated development, and improve the overall level and competitiveness of the industry.
(3) Strengthen infrastructure construction and optimize the operational and service environment for commercial vehicles. Infrastructure construction is an important support and guarantee for the development of the commercial automotive industry. The commercial vehicle industry should strengthen communication and collaboration with relevant departments and industries, promote the construction and improvement of infrastructure such as new energy vehicle charging stations, intelligent connected vehicle communication networks, and commercial vehicle parking lots, and provide convenience and guarantee for the operation and service of commercial vehicles. At the same time, the commercial vehicle industry should strengthen communication and collaboration with relevant departments and industries, promote the construction and optimization of infrastructure such as commercial vehicle transportation channels, logistics distribution centers, and passenger stations, and provide an efficient and safe environment for the transportation and travel of commercial vehicles.
(4) Strengthen market cooperation and expand the application and service fields of commercial vehicles. Market cooperation is an important way and means for the development of the commercial automotive industry. The commercial automotive industry should strengthen communication and collaboration with relevant departments and industries, promote the widespread application and services of commercial vehicles in public transportation, tourism, logistics, special transportation, and other fields, and provide strong support for social and economic development. At the same time, the commercial vehicle industry should strengthen communication and collaboration with relevant departments and industries, promote innovative applications and services of commercial vehicles in new energy, intelligence, sharing, and other fields, and provide beneficial exploration for improving social life.
In short, the commercial automotive industry is facing opportunities for restorative growth, but it also faces many challenges. The commercial automotive industry needs to strengthen innovation and cooperation to address challenges and uncertainties and achieve high-quality development.
Post time: Nov-24-2023
